Does the U.S. really intend to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age? Can it be done?
Allegedly, Iran’s response was to send the President this map:
The Strait of Hormuz is critical because 20% of the world’s oil plus many more strategic materials transits there, including helium, aluminum, urea, and sulfur. What is under the water is also important. The “cloud” is in unsecured cables on the ocean floor. These carry the internet, banking data, and financial transactions for hundreds of millions of people across the Middle East, Asia, and beyond. If a cable were cut, it might take weeks for repair ships even to find it.
Global civilization has been built on “pulses of light traveling through cables thinner than a human hair.”
How significant is the potential for asymmetric warfare involving attacks on undersea cables? There is enormous redundancy in the system. Cables are frequently cut, generally by accident. Data then finds a different route, possibly by satellite.
There are currently almost 600 submarine cables in service—about 700,000 miles. They carry more than 99% of intercontinental data traffic. Cutting the ones beneath the Strait of Hormuz would disproportionately harm the Gulf states, India, Pakistan, and enterprises in Europe, Asia, and Africa doing business with Gulf states, though alternate routes would be found. This highlights our dependence on technology.
The world was not in the Stone Age without electricity, petrochemicals, and instantaneous data transfer. But it could support far fewer people and living standards would be much lower. Sabotaging industry and commerce has global effects on human life.
Is this war just about Iran? Is it already a world war? World War I involved 31 countries. How many are affected by the Strait of Hormuz?
World War I destroyed the previous order in Europe and the world. What might the Iran war do to the current economic and financial order? Is the result predictable? Would this price be worth it to achieve the objectives for which the war was launched (assuming that these are achievable)?
The decision-makers in Washington need to be pondering this question.
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