Have you had to fill your gas tank lately? If you have, then you have surely noticed the increase in price. About 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to block.
As the graphs show, this is not the only affected commodity.
The U.S. will likely be less affected by oil shortages than other places such as China because its supply comes largely by other routes. But oil is not the only problem. One not shown here is helium, which is critical for several scientific and industrial endeavors. Qatar is home to one of only two plants that produce semiconductor-grade helium, which is ionized and used to etch silicon wafers.
Worst is that the Strait is the chokepoint for everything the world needs to survive, for which oil or liquified natural gas (LNG) is the feedstock: urea (needed to make nitrogen fertilizer) and sulfur (to make sulfuric acid, the most produced chemical on earth).
Although Iran has so far not mined the Strait or sunk any ships, traffic is virtually zero because Lloyds of London is cancelling insurance. The U.S. has stated that it will insure and protect tankers.
Confident assertions that Iran would quickly capitulate within days or weeks and that a U.S./Israel approved regime would take power, leading to triumph at minimal cost, depend on several assumptions: 1) Iran is running our of drones and missiles; 2) the U.S. has an unlimited supply of effective air defenses; 3) enough Iranians would rally to support an insurgency; 4) a stable government, rather than chaos, would result; 5) Iran will get no outside support.
Will the war stay “over there”—or are there sleeper terror cells here?
Remember that “geography is the indomitable god of war.”
Prepare to the extent that you can for shortages and financial disruption.
