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Economy Watch: AI Boom or Bubble?

Are you concerned about artificial intelligence (AI)—to be renamed “superintelligence”—taking over your job?

 It could be an enormous boost to the economy and a new “Golden Age”—or an existential threat to humanity. But one thing is certain: data centers are crowding out the private construction industry, as the graph shows.

Graph Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/ai-versus-everything-else

Building data centers is only a fraction of the spending on AI. Much of the cost is for computer equipment and software. The construction jobs are temporary. Once completed, the data centers have very few workers.

What data centers produce is data. And is the data worth enough to repay the investment? More than a trillion dollars has been poured into AI. Big Tech firms are taking on more off-balance-sheet debt to finance their AI ambitions. This “black box” debt could add up to trillions of dollars. Some firms are making deals on assets that don’t yet exist. OpenAI wants to spend $1.4 trillion; they’ve got only $13 billion in revenue.

Since ChatGPT was launched, AI stocks have accounted for 75% of the S&P’s returns. Ordinary people’s pensions depend on the stock market—which is being propped up by one highly speculative sector.

Is AI investment a gigantic bubble? Today’s AI boom has features strikingly like the Iceland banking crisis of 2008. The Icelandic banking system grew from 100% of GDP in 1998 to 9 times GDP in 2008, when it catastrophically failed overnight.

While people need to take advantage of AI’s benefits, they must not become dependent on it. Check it carefully for errors. Keep in mind that it may tell you what you want to hear, so don’t rely on its medical advice. As for any potential crisis, be prepared: learn practical skills, diversify investments, and stockpile essentials.

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